Why Delhi may be on right track in Covid-19 fight

Date: 04/12/2020

The third wave of coronavirus disease (Covid-19) infections in Delhi has started showing clear signs of receding with new cases dropping steadily over the past few weeks. The reduction in new infections has come hand-in-hand with a drop by the positivity rate and a big improvement in testing, suggesting that the outbreak in Delhi could also be relatively in check for the third time. Here are four factors that show Delhi is on the proper track in its battle against the viral outbreak.

1. A distinct drop in the third wave

Delhi’s Covid-19 case trajectory has shown three distinct surges. the primary started in mid-June and peaked when the seven-day average of daily cases, also referred to as the case trajectory, touched around 3,400 within the last week of June. This receded by the top of July when the trajectory dropped to around 1,000 daily cases. The second wave started at the top of August, rising until mid-September, when average daily cases touched 4,174 for the week ending Citizenship Day . This again dropped to 2,574 within the week ending October 9, before the onset of the third wave.

The third wave raged through most of October and November, resulting in the most important surge of cases the capital has seen. The seven-day average of latest cases peaked on November 14, when it touched 7,341 – the very best recorded thus far . Since then, however, cases have started receding almost steadily (albeit with a small bump on November 19 and 20).

2. Testing better and testing more

While Delhi has been ramping up Covid-19 tests from as early as September, a key concern was that the majority were rapid antigen tests, which are cheap, and produce results within quarter-hour , but unreliable. The proportion of reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests, considered by experts to be the “gold-standard”, dropped significantly. within the first 15 days of September, while overall testing rose, the share of RT-PCR tests nearly halved – from 32.3% within the week ending September 1 to 17% within the week ending September 16. this might have suppressed the important positivity rate because studies have shown that rapid antigen tests can miss the maximum amount as 50% of positive cases.

But within the past few weeks, this has not been the case. within the past week, 47.5% of all tests wiped out Delhi are RT-PCR tests – the very best proportion ever recorded since the Delhi government started releasing a breakup of testing numbers within the last week of August. Meanwhile, the speed of testing (both RT-PCR and antigen) is at the very best ever. on the average , the Delhi government has conducted 64,148 tests a day within the last week. In fact, 78,949 samples were tested on Tuesday, another single-day testing record.

3. Dropping positivity rate a good sign

The positivity rate for Covid-19, meanwhile, has again started dropping. within the last week, 7.3% of samples tested have come positive (this is that the lowest in over a month, since 7.2% for the week ending October 26). The proportion was 11.2% the week before, and 13.3% the week before that. On Wednesday, it had been 5% — rock bottom single-day positivity rate in nearly two months (it was 5% on October 6).

The positivity rate may be a crucial metric as experts say it shows how widespread the virus is within the community, and when including increasing new infections, indicates that the virus is spreading rapidly. A rising positivity rate typically suggests that a neighborhood is testing inadequately. the typical positivity rate should drop to five or below if the testing programme is adequate and is keeping the outbreak on top of things , consistent with the planet Health Organization (WHO). that's why testing enough, and using the proper quite tests, is that the key to Delhi having the ability to regulate the outbreak within the next few weeks.

4. Another relief: Covid deaths dip again

As Delhi grappled with the third wave of infections, another alarming trend emerged – daily deaths were rising at an alarming rate again. within the week ending November 24, 116 people died a day on the average of Covid-19. This was the very best death rate since mid-June (to make certain , deaths during this latter period were artificially inflated as Delhi retrospectively added fatalities that had been wrong not attributed to Covid-19, consistent with the Delhi government).

From the height within the week to November 24, however, deaths have again started inching down, with 89 people each day on the average , dying of Covid-19 within the past week.