HEADLINE: Bihar election reveals its political muscle

Date: 13/10/2020

Both Bihar and USA will attend poll amidst the pandemic. The 7.2 crore voters in Bihar will choose three phases from October 28, 2020. “Man naturally may be a political animal,” as Aristotle put it. He emphasised on the compulsion of politics, which becomes inevitable when Bihar goes to elections.

Nitish Kumar has been the Chief Minister of Bihar for an extended time apart from a quick period of nine months when Jitan Ram Manjhi became the CM. alongside BJP, Nitish Kumar’s party JDU has led the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) in Bihar for 15 years, aside from those three years when the Bihar CM parted ways with the BJP over Narendra Modi’s appointment as Campaign Committee Chief for 2014 General Elections. Nitish has been a well-liked CM courtesy his social engineering effort where he carved out ‘Mahadalits’ after he became CM in 2005, and therefore the welfare-oriented socialist-populist schemes that he has been championing ever since he assumed office. But then, he's up against an anti-incumbency of 15 years.

Nitish’s ally BJP has always had an honest cadre in Bihar, but their problem is with leadership. The Deputy CM Sushil Modi doesn’t inspire confidence and is essentially seen as Nitish’s prodigy, who prefers to stay established order . Another NDA ally, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) is confined to a couple of areas in Bihar. With the demise of Ramvilas Paswan, his son and LJP supremo, Chirag Paswan faces the challenge to hold forward his father’s limited legacy. Certain social media political enthusiasts might see him because the next CM, but the facts on the bottom don't corroborate with their whims. LJP has never performed well outside Vaishali (Tirhut region) barring the 2005 Assembly elections (Chirag Paswan and Mehboob Ali Kaisar are the sole two exceptions).

LJP has decided to field its candidates against JDU but not against BJP, which is being termed as clever political manoeuvring. However, let’s not remain oblivious to the very fact that it took Nitish 20 years to unseat the Yadav warlords of RJD in Bihar. Hence, it might be unrealistic to assume that Chirag could pose any severe threat to Nitish within the upcoming Assembly elections. However, he might get some sympathy votes thanks to the demise of LJP patriarch Ramvilas Paswan.

Nitish has been a well-liked CM, courtesy of his social engineering efforts and therefore the welfare-oriented socialist-populist schemes.

The opposition camp of Mahagathbandhan (MGB) has Rashtriya Janta Dal (RJD) and Congress. Despite the favoured belief, Lalu continues to be a key think about Bihar politics. RJD’s vote share in 2019 Lok Sabha election was 15.4 per cent amidst a Modi tsunami. So, within the Assembly elections, Lalu Yadav remains a force to reckon with. His sons Tejpratap and Tejasvi also face a litmus test of filling in their father’s shoes. It remains to be seen if they will pull it off this point.

Going by regional analysis, the Bhojpur region is often divided into two — Aara, Buxar on one side and Chhapra, Siwan and Gopalganj on the opposite side of the Ganges. NDA features a stronghold within the Aara-Buxar region, because of the relative urbanisation of this block, while the opposite side of the Ganga remains an RJD stronghold, given the sheer number of Yadavs who swear by Lalu. Convicted or innocent, in jail or outside, the Yadav strongman features a magical influence on his core voters, which is more evident within the Assembly elections and one has got to see this to believe. However, BJP — riding high on Modi wave — made an enormous dent in Yadav vote base in last two Lok Sabha elections. The Magadh region consists of capital Patna, Gaya, Nalanda and Jehanabad. This region has witnessed the many impacts of both the NDA and therefore the MGB. BJP has a foothold in Patna, because of the Kayastha and Baniya votes. But a careful seat selection by the RJD might swing a sizeable Baniya vote from BJP. Nalanda remains a JDU bastion due to the massive number of Kurmi voters. South Bihar consisting of Sasaram, Dumlao, and a few parts of Aara and Buxar has been good for the BJP. But RJD isn’t too distant here.

Seemanchal consisting of Kishanganj, Katihar, Khagadia, Purnea, Farbisganj and Saharsa is traditionally a bastion of MGB. The considerable Muslim population during this area makes it a troublesome nut to crack for the NDA, though JDU managed to form a little dent in previous elections. With the entry of Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul Muslimeen (AIMIM), Seemanchal has now become a special ball game altogether. Qamrul Hoda is that the lone AIMIM MLA from Kishanganj and now with Owaisi’s decision to field his candidates in 50 seats in Bihar, this looks unfavourable for the MGB. The secular arithmetic might change. Owaisi took strong objection to be alleged as a ’Vote kata’ (vote splitter), but even a little per cent swing could upset the secular arithmetic in Bihar. If the Muslim population of Seemanchal prefers AIMIM over MGB, it's sure to cause a counter polarisation. The result's advantage NDA.

The Tirhut region comprising Vaishali, Hajipur, Samastipur, Muzaffarpur, Begusarai, Sitamarhi, Khagaria are strongholds of RJD. These are primarily rural areas (except Muzaffarpur) with significant Yadav population. Also, the Rajputs have often sided with the RJD in previous elections as they need preferring to stay within the good books of the incumbent RJD for an extended time. Late Raghuvansh Prasad Singh was a Rajput leader for the party and therefore the state RJD unit chief Jagdanand Singh also happens to be a robust Rajput leader. The 2010 Assembly clean sweep by NDA in Tirhut is that the only exception. Lastly, the Angika region with the towns of Bhagalpur, Banka and Munger have traditionally favoured BJP. this is often because the dual factors of upper caste population and urbanisation are said to get on the proper side of BJP.

NDA has one face in Bihar, which is of Nitish Kumar. However, his charisma has surely abated in past few years. PM Modi continues to stay a crowd puller anywhere in India. However, with an ongoing pandemic, the virtual rallies won't engage the voter with an equivalent effect. to not forget, this is often the primary election amidst the pandemic, so it'll also measure the anti-incumbency impact of Covid-19. Bihar remains a party.